Mysteel: 2025 China Seamless Steel Pipe Export Outlook and Volume Analysis

Overview
China’s seamless steel pipe exports have surged in recent years, surpassing 5 million tons annually, driven by domestic supply chain advantages and rising global demand. In 2024, exports hit a record high of 5.7211 million tons, accounting for nearly 20% of total production. As 2025 unfolds amid geopolitical complexities, what challenges will China’s seamless pipe exports face? Will volumes hold steady or decline? This report delves into the key trends.

I. 2024 Export Review: Record Volumes and Structural Shifts

1. Export Volume & Pricing

• Volume: Exports reached 5.7211 million tons in 2024, up 1% YoY and nearly 2.5 million tons higher than the 2020 low.

• Pricing: Average export prices fell to **$\mathrm{1,}269.82/ton\ast \ast (-$182.51/ton YoY), reflecting a “volume-up, price-down” trend. China’s cost competitiveness remains a key export driver.

2. Export Structure

• Regional Focus: Top 10 destinations (largely Belt and Road Initiative/BRI nations) absorbed 55.87% of exports. The UAE (524,900 tons, 9.18%) and Indonesia (412,200 tons, 7.21%) led demand.

• Product Mix: Oil/gas pipelines and drilling pipes dominated, though drilling pipe exports declined sharply in 2024. Boiler tubes and other categories saw modest growth.

II. 2025 Export Drivers: Challenges and Opportunities

1. Policy Impacts

• BRI Expansion: Green energy partnerships under BRI could sustain demand from member nations, which historically account for over 50% of exports.

• EU Carbon Tariffs: Under CBAM, Chinese exporters face additional costs of €42.8–179.8/ton (2026–2034) due to higher carbon intensity (1.7–1.8 tons CO₂/ton steel). However, limited EU-bound volumes (365,800 tons in 2024) mitigate short-term risks.

2. Global Supply-Demand Dynamics

• Production Dominance: China produced 31.5 million tons (60% of global output) in 2023, with no major overseas capacity expansions planned. Export resilience hinges on international demand and cost advantages.

• US Tariffs: Minimal direct impact, as US-bound exports totaled just 100,000 tons in 2024.

3. Currency & Cost Pressures

• RMB Exchange Rate: A stable RMB (around 7.2/USD) supports export competitiveness. Historically, weaker RMB correlates with higher export volumes.

4. Oil Prices & Drilling Activity

• Crude Oil: Forecasts suggest lower 2025 prices, potentially dampening oil/gas pipe demand.

• Drilling Investment: Global oil/gas exploration spending fell 2.5% YoY to $553.8 billion in 2024, with 2025 projections indicating flat or slightly lower investments.

III. 2025 Export Forecast: Modest Decline Expected

• Demand: Global seamless pipe demand is likely to stagnate or dip slightly.

• Pricing: Domestic prices may trend “lower early, higher late,” with annual averages slightly below 2024 levels.

• Volume: Exports are projected at 5.2–5.4 million tons (-5.6% to -7.6% YoY), influenced by tariffs and softer energy sector demand.