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Overview
This week, steel futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with subdued trading activity and cautious market sentiment. Globally, economic and trade friction measures in January 2025 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, led by the electronics industry. U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all non-domestically manufactured vehicles and specific auto parts. Domestically, China issued RMB 496.6 billion in new bonds in February 2025, while the central bank conducted a RMB 785 billion 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an unchanged rate of 1.50%. Seamless pipe prices declined slightly this week, with the national average price dropping by RMB 10/ton.
Seamless Pipes: The national average price for 108*4.5mm seamless pipes fell to RMB 4,393/ton by March 28, marking a week-on-week decrease of RMB 10/ton. Prices in most mainstream markets edged lower.
Raw Materials: Prices for Shandong pipe billets rose by RMB 20/ton week-on-week, while Jiangsu pipe billet prices remained stable. The price gap between Jiangsu and Shandong billets stayed unchanged from the previous week.
Mill Adjustments: Among 34 surveyed seamless pipe manufacturers, most kept prices steady, with minor adjustments of RMB 20–50/ton at individual mills.
Recent declines in raw material costs have slightly improved mill profitability:
Shandong Mills: Losses narrowed to RMB -30/ton, a week-on-week improvement of RMB 40/ton, though remaining below the breakeven line.
Jiangsu Mills: Profits increased by RMB 10/ton to RMB 200/ton.
Shandong hot-rolled pipe billet prices rose by RMB 20/ton week-on-week, while seamless pipe ex-factory prices weakened. Regional prices in East China dipped slightly, with production increasing marginally and mill inventories continuing to decline. Traders prioritized stable pricing to clear inventories, though transaction volumes remained moderate.
Social Inventory: National seamless pipe social inventories fell by 7,300 tons to 705,800 tons.
Mill Inventory: Producer inventories dropped by 7,500 tons to 607,400 tons, while raw material stocks rose by 7,700 tons to 311,300 tons.
Production: Weekly output increased by 3,200 tons to 357,100 tons, with capacity utilization reaching 77.60%. However, operating rates declined by 4.10% to 48.36%.
Raw material costs showed slight upward momentum, with pipe billet producers demonstrating stronger price support. Most mills maintained stable pricing, though profit margins remain constrained.
While seamless pipe production expanded and inventories declined, demand recovery lagged. Mid-week gains in ferrous futures briefly boosted market activity, but sustained demand weakness has kept traders focused on destocking.
Traders remain cautious, adopting a conservative approach to restocking.
Conclusion: With limited short-term demand growth and weak cost-side support, seamless pipe prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range next week.
