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Overview: In mid-October, the seamless pipe market faced a weak supply-demand situation, with sluggish demand and considerable inventory pressure on manufacturers, limiting overall price increases.
As we entered late October, influenced by favorable macroeconomic factors, prices showed a significant upward trend, which also drove an increase in seamless pipe sales, leading to an explosive market rebound. This article summarizes the seamless pipe fundamentals in October and provides a brief forecast for November's price trends.
October Seamless Pipe Price Fluctuation: According to Mysteel statistics, as of October 31, the average price of seamless pipes in China was reported at 4,566 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 96 yuan/ton from the average price of 4,470 yuan/ton on September 30. The price surged due to favorable macroeconomic conditions in early October but began to retreat as demand stabilized.
Profit Situation: The theoretical profit for seamless pipe manufacturers showed a "V" shape in October. Profits initially surged due to increased prices, but the rapid rise in raw material costs led to a swift decline in profits. By October 31, average profit for seamless pipes in Shandong was -70 yuan/ton, down from 280 yuan/ton at the end of September.
Supply Situation: October saw low but fluctuating supplies of seamless pipes. The average weekly production was 310,600 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.49% and an inventory level of 727,300 tons, indicating a decline in inventory compared to previous months.
Market Transactions: October transactions started slow but saw a significant increase by the end of the month, driven by improved market conditions. The average daily transaction volume increased by 11.9% compared to September.
Export Dynamics: In September, China exported 41,840 tons of seamless pipes, showing a slight increase from the previous month. The overall export market remains robust due to strong overseas demand.
Market Outlook for November: In November, macroeconomic factors are expected to remain favorable, potentially boosting seamless pipe prices further. With improved demand and falling manufacturer inventory, a slight increase in supply is anticipated. Overall, seamless pipe prices are expected to fluctuate upward as the market enters a peak season for demand.
