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In the first week after the holiday, black-series futures prices fluctuated and strengthened, while upstream raw material prices experienced slight adjustments. Internationally, U.S. President Donald Trump announced during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on February 7 that reciprocal tariff measures would be introduced next week, affecting all countries. The U.S. Department of Labor reported a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4% in January. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar but remained resilient overall. China’s General Administration of Customs also announced special measures to stabilize foreign trade growth.
On the supply side, as this was the first week after the holiday, market activity had not fully resumed. Orders at pipe mills were moderate, leading to inventory accumulation. As of February 8, seamless pipe prices in major cities remained stable.
Seamless Pipe Prices:
As of February 8, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes in 28 major cities was 4,444 RMB/ton, unchanged from pre-holiday levels. Most mainstream markets maintained stable prices, with a slight increase in the Liaocheng market.
Raw Material Prices:
Shandong billet prices rose by 20 RMB/ton compared to pre-holiday levels.
Jiangsu billet prices dropped by 10 RMB/ton.
The price gap between Jiangsu and Shandong billets narrowed by 30 RMB/ton.
Pipe Mill Pricing:
According to a Mysteel survey of 34 seamless pipe mills, most kept their prices stable in the first week after the holiday.
Seamless Pipe Mill Profits:
Shandong: Profit rose to 100 RMB/ton (+50 RMB/ton week-over-week).
Jiangsu: Profit increased to 150 RMB/ton (+40 RMB/ton week-over-week).
Profit margins increased in Jiangsu pipe mills.
Example: 20# hot-rolled 108*4.5mm seamless pipe
Frequent fluctuations in upstream raw material prices led to unstable profit margins for pipe mills.
Raw Materials: Shandong hot-rolled billet prices increased 20 RMB/ton week-over-week.
Pipe Prices: Shandong’s major pipe mills raised their seamless pipe prices slightly, but prices in Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou remained stable.
Market Sentiment:
Traders gradually resumed operations after the holiday.
Transactions started to pick up.
Inventory levels increased slightly.
Most traders maintained a rational outlook on post-holiday pricing.
Forecast: Prices in East China are expected to remain stable next week.
Seamless Pipe Prices:
Guangzhou: 4,500 RMB/ton
Lecong: 4,450 RMB/ton
Nanning: 4,490 RMB/ton
Prices remained stable week-over-week.
Raw Material Trends:
Shandong billet prices increased 20 RMB/ton.
Jiangsu billet prices rose 10-20 RMB/ton.
Major pipe mills kept their quotes unchanged.
Market Sentiment:
Black-series futures showed strong fluctuations, fueling some bullish sentiment.
Market activity remained subdued as downstream operations had not fully resumed.
Winter-stocked resources continued to arrive, leading to a slight inventory increase.
Forecast: South China seamless pipe prices are expected to be stable to slightly stronger next week.
Inventory Levels:
National seamless pipe social inventory: 69.92 million tons (+1.01 million tons week-over-week).
Seamless pipe mill inventory: 65.33 million tons (+1.66 million tons week-over-week, +2.78 million tons year-over-year).
Raw material inventory: 30.26 million tons (+0.34 million tons week-over-week, +3.07 million tons year-over-year).
As pipe mills resumed operations after the holiday, mill inventories increased.
Production Data:
Weekly production: 26.77 million tons (+1.04 million tons week-over-week, -3.39 million tons year-over-year).
Capacity utilization rate: 58.17% (+2.26% week-over-week, -7.37% year-over-year).
Operating rate: 45.08% (+12.30% week-over-week, unchanged year-over-year).
More mills resumed production after pre-holiday maintenance, and output is expected to increase further next week.
Price Trends:
Raw material prices fluctuated slightly (10-20 RMB/ton adjustments).
Most mainstream pipe mills kept prices stable after the holiday.
Market Fundamentals:
Seamless pipe production increased.
Pipe mills reported moderate order volumes.
Factory inventories grew.
Downstream demand remained weak, with many enterprises resuming full operations only after the Lantern Festival.
Market Sentiment:
Traders remain cautious, given uncertainty about future trends.
Conclusion:
Demand has not fully recovered, while supply is increasing.
Market participants are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Next week, seamless pipe prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.
