en 
Call
+8613166245535
This week, favorable macroeconomic news was released, but its impact on market confidence was limited, with overall average market transactions. Internationally, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, with further cuts possible this year, sparking a "rate-cutting wave" in many regions globally. Domestically, China’s National Development and Reform Commission is working on improving carbon emission statistics and researching a comprehensive carbon peak and neutrality evaluation system. In the domestic seamless pipe market, supply and demand remain under pressure, with most major pipe factories maintaining steady prices. As of September 20, the national average price of seamless pipes across 28 major cities remained flat compared to last week.
Seamless Pipe Prices: According to Mysteel data, as of September 20, the national average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major cities was 4,355 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week. Prices in key markets remained stable.
Raw Material Prices: By the end of this week, raw material prices saw a strong increase. In Shandong, billet prices rose by 130 yuan/ton week-on-week, and in Jiangsu, they increased by 150 yuan/ton. The price gap between Jiangsu and Shandong expanded slightly.
Pipe Factory Adjustments: Mysteel's survey of 34 sample seamless pipe factories showed that some factories lowered prices by 10-50 yuan/ton this week.
Seamless pipe manufacturers continued to see declining profits this week due to high-priced billet purchases. For instance, Shandong's sample companies reported a profit of 40 yuan/ton for 108*4.5mm seamless pipes, down 30 yuan/ton from last week. In Jiangsu, profits were 270 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. In Shandong, factory profits are nearing the breakeven point, and with recent billet price trends, there may be some recovery in profits next week.
Prices for seamless pipes in East China remained stable this week. Some major factories in Shandong reduced ex-factory prices by 10-50 yuan/ton. Production and inventory levels at factories and warehouses saw slight increases. On the raw materials front, Shandong billet prices remained stable. The futures market in the ferrous sector strengthened, boosting confidence, but demand for seamless pipes remained lackluster. Downstream demand was modest, and traders maintained low inventories, prioritizing stable prices and sales. In the short term, seamless pipe prices in East China are expected to remain stable.
According to Mysteel's survey of 123 traders, nationwide seamless pipe social inventories reached 670,100 tons, an increase of 18,700 tons week-on-week. Factory inventories increased by 1,100 tons week-on-week, totaling 733,700 tons, while raw material inventories fell by 1,800 tons. Although recent macroeconomic news has boosted confidence, tight capital at downstream enterprises continues to hinder procurement, resulting in sluggish market transactions and a significant increase in social inventories, putting pressure on the supply side.
This week, production reached 315,500 tons, a 7,600-ton increase week-on-week. Capacity utilization rose to 68.56%, up 1.65% week-on-week, and the operating rate increased to 54.92%. Some pipe manufacturers are planning maintenance due to order pressure, so production may decline slightly next week.
Price: Raw material prices weakened slightly this week, and macroeconomic news had limited impact on steel prices. Poor profitability in upstream billet plants and large fluctuations in the futures market suggest raw material prices may remain volatile, providing weak support to pipe factory prices.
Fundamentals: While September demand is better than August, transaction volumes have not surged significantly. Inventory replenishment remains cautious, with seamless pipe stock levels reducing slowly.
Sentiment: September demand has been weaker than expected, and downstream buyers continue to face financial constraints. Traders are holding steady, leading to a generally cautious market atmosphere.
In conclusion, with raw material prices fluctuating narrowly and reduced profit margins for seamless pipe manufacturers, the seamless pipe market remains in a supply-demand equilibrium. Post-holiday, prices may continue to trend slightly weaker.
