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Overview: Against the backdrop of weak demand before and after the 2025 Spring Festival, most nationwide seamless pipe traders are feeling pessimistic. Although futures have rebounded recently, the lag in seamless steel pipe performance has led to a dominant negative market sentiment, making operators cautious. This article reviews the recent market changes in seamless pipe prices, supply, and demand, and provides a forecast for March's market trends.
1. Price Trends
According to Mysteel, the national average price of seamless pipes (based on 20#, 108*4.5mm) stabilized in the first quarter of 2024, then saw a slight decline before rising in mid-March to the highest point of 4845 RMB/ton. In the third quarter, prices dropped, reaching their lowest point of 4323 RMB/ton in late September. The fourth quarter saw a slight recovery, ending the year with a price of 4442 RMB/ton. As of February 20, 2025, the average price was 4431 RMB/ton, down 13 RMB/ton from the previous month and 482 RMB/ton year-on-year, reaching a near three-year low.
2. Supply Trends
According to Mysteel statistics, the production this week reached 301,900 tons, an increase of 34,200 tons from last week but a decrease of 7,800 tons compared to the same period last month. This indicates a quicker recovery post-holiday, but production remains slower than the previous month, possibly due to post-holiday production adjustments or cautious demand expectations. Factory inventory is 647,800 tons, showing a slight decline from last week but a 22,800-ton increase year-on-year, indicating an improvement in post-holiday shipments but still under pressure. Raw material inventory increased by 3,300 tons from last week and 22,600 tons year-on-year, reflecting manufacturers’ optimism about future demand and preparedness for production expansion.
3. Demand Trends
Customs data show that China exported 5.72 million tons of seamless pipes in 2024, an increase of 1.03% year-on-year. Overseas demand for seamless pipes continues to grow. Policies stimulating demand, such as the acceleration of infrastructure project approvals, are expected to benefit long-term seamless pipe demand. However, the effects will be limited in the first quarter. The release of special bonds and PSL (Pledged Supplementary Loans) will drive the construction of major projects, with a marginal improvement in infrastructure demand for seamless pipes starting in March. However, the real estate sector’s “guarantee of delivery” policy has limited the impact on new construction, restricting demand for construction pipes. Overall, demand is expected to recover to peak season levels, with March seeing a fluctuating market for seamless pipes.
4. Conclusion
Pre-festival price stabilization led to low expectations for post-festival demand, and the slow recovery of demand has resulted in a quiet trading atmosphere. On the demand side, the acceleration of fiscal policies and infrastructure project approvals will provide long-term benefits, but the effect will be limited in the first quarter. March's seamless pipe transactions are likely to recover at a faster pace. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders holding lower inventories and strong interest in buying at lower prices.
In summary, prices of seamless pipes are expected to stabilize in March, with policy-driven demand marginally improving, although the extent of the rebound will depend on the pace of infrastructure construction.
