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Overview
The "Golden March and Silver April" period is traditionally a peak season for the steel industry. However, this year’s "Golden March" saw stable-to-weak trends in China’s seamless pipe market, with prices fluctuating weakly in late March before stabilizing. Despite persistently high raw material costs supporting prices, finished product prices have edged lower, squeezing mill profits. Major mills maintained high operating rates with decent order backlogs, demonstrating strong price resilience. Although Q1 steel demand recovery fell short of expectations, gradual improvements are underway. Will April bring stability or volatility to seamless pipe prices? Below is our analysis.
Over the past three years, pipe billet prices have trended downward. In Q1 2025, Shandong pipe billet prices hovered between RMB 3,300–3,500/ton, showing relative stability compared to previous years. As of March 28, Tangshan billet prices stood at RMB 3,070/ton, with the pipe-billet price gap at RMB 410/ton, exceeding the traditional RMB 300/ton spread. This suggests a potential RMB 110/ton downside for pipe billets.
Inventory Insights: Mill pipe billet inventories rose 1.18% MoM by March 28, reflecting sustained procurement activity.
Price Support: Despite weaker finished pipe prices, robust billet costs have limited drastic price swings, reducing the likelihood of significant volatility in April.
Production: National seamless pipe output reached 357,100 tons by March 31 (+1.97% MoM), with 33 surveyed mills operating 122 production lines.
Inventory Shifts: Mill inventories fell 2.67% MoM to 607,400 tons, indicating a transfer of stocks to the market. Regional demand recovery in March drove inventory declines.
Profit Pressures:
Shandong Mills: Theoretical losses narrowed to -RMB 30/ton due to squeezed margins for 20# hot-rolled Ф108*4.5mm pipes.
Jiangsu Mills: Profits remained positive but declined slightly.
April Outlook: Production is expected to rise further as mills resume operations and expand capacity.
Transaction Data: Weekly seamless pipe trade volume (123 surveyed traders) rose to 15,760 tons in late March (+1,427 tons WoW). March’s daily average transactions grew 9.37% YoY.
Regional Trends: Northwest China saw the sharpest WoW increase, though overall demand growth remains muted.
Macro Drivers: Q2 typically accelerates infrastructure and industrial project activity, with policy measures announced in March likely to take effect. However, demand sustainability hinges on downstream funding availability.
China’s seamless pipe market is expected to stabilize in April, with prices consolidating within a narrow range. Key factors include:
Supply-Demand Balance: Gradual demand recovery against rising output.
Trader Strategy: Prioritize inventory digestion; avoid overstocking.
End-User Advice: Maintain lean inventories and monitor price movements for strategic procurement.
Final Outlook: April prices will likely oscillate moderately, with limited volatility driven by cost support and incremental demand.
