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Social Inventory Hits New Low: Steel Pipe Price Decline in East China Narrows This Week (Aug 2 - Aug 9)

Social Inventory Hits New Low: Steel Pipe Price Decline in East China Narrows This Week (Aug 2 - Aug 9)

Summary

This week, the price of hot-rolled billets in Shandong continued to decline, dropping by 40-90 yuan/ton over the week. Most mainstream seamless pipe factories in Shandong reduced their ex-factory prices by 20-50 yuan/ton. Market prices for seamless pipes remained stable, while merchants continued to reduce inventory levels. In the East China region, steel pipe prices experienced slight downward fluctuations. Despite pipe manufacturers' strong intentions to maintain prices, weak market demand has hindered price increases. In the short term, steel pipe prices in East China are expected to continue fluctuating and consolidating.

Review of the Week

1. Price Review

This week, steel pipe prices in East China continued to decline. In major cities, the prices of welded pipes and galvanized pipes dropped by 20-40 yuan/ton, with the decline narrower than last week. Prices for seamless pipes in East China's major markets remained stable throughout the week.


rolled steel pipe

Prices for seamless pipes in East China's major cities(unit:yuan/ton)

2. Inventory

According to a survey by Mysteel, the inventory of welded pipes and galvanized pipes in sample companies in the East China region remained at 166,000 tons this week, unchanged from the previous week. The inventory of seamless pipes in the region decreased by 7,100 tons to 457,900 tons.

3. Market


Welded Pipes and Galvanized Pipes: This week, prices of welded pipes and galvanized pipes in East China showed a slight downward trend. In some major markets, prices fell by 20-40 yuan/ton over the week. Specifically, in the Hangzhou market, prices for welded pipes and galvanized pipes dropped by 20 yuan/ton compared to last week. In the Nanjing market, welded pipe prices decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and galvanized pipes by 30 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, the price of hot-rolled strip steel in Tangshan dropped by 80 yuan/ton compared to last Friday.

The market continues to face weak demand, with strong bearish sentiment and widespread selling at lower prices, lacking support for a price increase. This week, factory inventories have started to decline after a previous increase, and social inventories continue to decrease. Prices are expected to remain weak, with most traders adopting a wait-and-see approach. In the short term, prices of welded pipes and galvanized pipes in East China are expected to fluctuate and consolidate.

Seamless Pipes: This week, the price of hot-rolled billets in Shandong decreased by 40-90 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, leading some major pipe factories in Shandong to lower their ex-factory prices for seamless pipes by 20-50 yuan/ton. In East China’s main markets, seamless pipe prices remained stable compared to last Friday. In terms of production, sample pipe factories reduced output this week, and social inventories continued to decline. On the market side, the off-season has intensified, leading to fewer customer inquiries and stable prices. The continued weakening of market prices has made traders cautious, opting for quick turnovers. In the short term, prices of seamless pipes in East China are expected to remain weak and consolidate.

Forecast for Next Week

1. Supply:


According to Mysteel's weekly survey of straight seam welded pipe production enterprises (29 companies), this week’s welded pipe output was 299,700 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 53.4%, down 1.16% from the previous week, and the operating rate was 74.6%, down 0.61% from the previous week. Factory inventories increased by 900 tons to 332,500 tons, while raw material inventories rose by 6,600 tons to 628,800 tons. For galvanized pipes (28 companies), output was 218,000 tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 53.7%, down 4.09% from the previous week, and the operating rate was 81.42%, down 3% from the previous week. Factory inventories decreased by 12,900 tons to 464,200 tons, and zinc ingot consumption for the week was 4,399 tons, a decrease of 370 tons from the previous week.

Mysteel's national survey of seamless pipe mills (32 production enterprises, 122 production lines) shows that this week’s output was 305,000 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons from the previous week, but an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate was 66.28%, down 2.35% from the previous week, but up 0.3% from the previous month. The operating rate was 50%, down 2.46% from the previous week and from the previous month. Factory inventories decreased by 4,200 tons to 764,700 tons, while raw material inventories decreased by 6,900 tons to 292,000 tons, representing a decrease of 20,400 tons from the previous month.

2. Demand:


This week, market prices exhibited a slight downward trend with some fluctuations, though the decline was narrower than before. There has been no significant improvement in the sales of welded pipes, galvanized pipes, and seamless pipes compared to last week, with demand continuing to weaken. Downstream purchasing activity remains sluggish, and overall demand levels are weaker than in the same period in previous years. Prices are more likely to fall than rise.

3. Sentiment:


In early August, prices continued to decline, leading to cautious sentiment among traders. The focus has been on reducing inventory through sales, with widespread occurrences of selling at a loss and a strong fear of further price drops. Most traders are adopting a conservative approach.

Overall, the mismatch between supply and demand has led to a weak market, with limited demand and continued declines in both factory and social inventories. Traders remain cautious, and it is expected that the prices of steel pipes in the East China market may continue to fluctuate downward next week.



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