Overview: China's seamless pipe exports have consistently played a vital role in global demand, accounting for 15-18% of domestic production. From January to October 2024, exports showed a slight year-on-year decline, but October saw a sharp increase, significantly reducing the overall drop and enhancing the industry's expectations for 2024. Why did exports surge in October, and what does 2024 hold for China’s seamless pipe exports? Let's dive into the data and break it down.
From January to October 2024, China exported 4.53 million tons of seamless pipes, down 5.14% compared to the same period last year. However, October alone saw 570,600 tons exported, a 17.02% increase from September and a 32.61% rise year-on-year. The sharp rise in exports in September and October reversed earlier declines.
According to China's seamless pipe export data from January to October 2024, the export volumes for the following categories were as follows:
seamless pipes for oil and gas pipelines (1.5078 million tons),
seamless pipes for oil and gas drilling (1.3173 million tons),
geological drilling casing pipes (14,400 tons),
boiler pipes (204,600 tons),
seamless pipes (1.5276 million tons).
Among these, the export volume of seamless pipes for oil and gas pipelines remained almost unchanged compared to the previous year; however, exports of seamless pipes for oil and gas drilling and geological drilling casing pipes saw a significant decline. On the other hand, exports of boiler pipes and other seamless pipes showed an increase year-on-year
From a monthly breakdown, the performance of China's seamless pipe exports by category in August to October 2024 differs from the overall annual trend. In these three months, the monthly export volumes for seamless pipes for oil and gas pipelines were 134,700 tons, 161,300 tons, and 178,400 tons, respectively. The export volumes for seamless pipes for oil and gas drilling were 95,800 tons, 140,600 tons, and 194,400 tons, respectively. In comparison, the growth in other categories was less significant. Therefore, it can be observed that the increase in overseas demand for pipes related to oil and gas applications contributed significantly to the export growth of China's seamless pipes in September and October.
According to China's seamless pipe export data from January to October 2024, the top 10 countries by export volume were the UAE, Indonesia, India, Oman, Turkey, Thailand, South Korea, Nigeria, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia. These countries collectively imported 2.5138 million tons of China's seamless pipes, accounting for 54.99% of the total export volume. It can be observed that the top 10 export destinations are primarily major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, as well as Asian countries.
According to the detailed data on China's seamless pipe exports by country from August to October 2024, the countries with the most significant increase in export volume were the UAE, Nigeria, and Kuwait. Specifically, the UAE's exports rose sharply from 26,600 tons in August to 74,700 tons in October. The data indicates that the primary contribution to the growth in seamless pipe exports during September and October mainly came from the major oil-producing countries in the Middle East.
Based on the previous data, China's seamless pipe exports in October saw a significant increase mainly due to a recovery in external demand, driven by strong economic performance in the United States. Starting in the third quarter, overseas demand began to recover, leading to a gradual increase in China's seamless pipe exports. This growth was largely driven by increased oil and gas investments in major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, which significantly boosted demand for products like oil casing pipes.
Looking ahead, the uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of political changes in the United States and new policies on international trade suggests that businesses may plan to bring forward their orders. Furthermore, the ongoing expansion of oil and gas investments, particularly in the Middle East, is expected to further boost demand for China's seamless pipes. Given these factors, it is anticipated that China's seamless pipe exports will maintain a positive momentum in 2024, with the total export volume expected to remain between 5.2 million and 5.4 million tons.