en 
Call
+8613166245535
This week, steel futures prices fluctuated upward, and the market has entered the seasonal demand off-season.
Global Context:
The U.S. December 2024 retail sales growth rate was recorded at 0.4%, slightly below expectations, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts this year.
The Bank of Canada is expected to end quantitative tightening in the coming months.
Domestic Context:
In 2024, China's annual birth rate reached 9.54 million, an increase of 520,000 compared to 2023.
Power generation in December by large-scale industrial enterprises reached 846.2 billion kWh, a 0.6% YoY increase.
Daily power generation averaged 27.3 billion kWh.
Pipe Mills:
Market demand has significantly weakened, leading to insufficient orders at major mills.
Supply levels remain low. As of Jan 17, seamless pipe prices in major cities remained stable.
Seamless Pipe Prices
Mysteel data shows that as of Jan 17, the national average price for seamless pipes (108*4.5mm) was RMB 4,444/ton, flat WoW. Most mainstream market prices remained stable, reflecting pre-holiday calmness.
Raw Material Prices
Shandong billet prices increased by RMB 60/ton WoW.
Jiangsu billet prices rose by RMB 10/ton WoW.
The price gap between Jiangsu and Shandong narrowed.
Mill Price Adjustments
According to Mysteel's survey of 34 seamless pipe mills, prices remained largely stable this week, with slight increases at a few mills.
Jiangsu pipe mills experienced narrow profit fluctuations this week. For example:
Upstream raw material price volatility has kept mill profitability at moderate levels.
Shandong mills: profit at -RMB 50/ton, down RMB 10/ton WoW.
Jiangsu mills: profit at RMB 90/ton, down RMB 20/ton WoW.
Raw Materials
Shandong billet prices increased by RMB 60/ton WoW.
Major Shandong pipe mills showed mixed trends, with factory prices either steady or slightly rising.
Market Prices
With the approach of the Chinese New Year, market trading remains subdued. Traders are mostly adopting a steady approach as enthusiasm for winter stockpiling remains low. Seamless pipe inventories in East China have slightly increased, indicating cautious post-holiday sentiment.
Seamless pipe prices in Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou remained unchanged WoW.
Outlook for Next Week
Prices in East China are expected to remain stable.
Nationwide seamless pipe inventory: 663,600 tons, up 3,200 tons WoW.
Factory stock: 625,000 tons, down 500 tons WoW and 30,000 tons YoY.
Raw material stock: 283,300 tons, up 11,400 tons WoW and 7,800 tons YoY.
Mills and merchants have largely completed pre-holiday preparations. Factory inventories show minimal changes.
Weekly production: 309,700 tons, up 8,100 tons WoW and 18,300 tons MoM.
Capacity utilization rate: 67.3%, up 1.76% WoW.
Operating rate: 45.08%, flat WoW but down 0.61% MoM.
Production remains constrained as demand continues to weaken. Many mills are entering maintenance mode ahead of the holiday.
Raw material prices rebounded by RMB 10–60/ton this week due to futures market fluctuations.
Seamless pipe prices remained stable with minor adjustments at select mills.
Seamless pipe production slightly increased, but orders remain weak.
Next week, most merchants and downstream customers will suspend operations for the holidays, resulting in a weak supply-demand balance.
Most traders expect unclear trends after the holiday, adopting cautious operational strategies.
The seamless pipe market has fully entered the seasonal off-season. With supply and demand both declining, price fluctuations are minimal. Seamless pipe prices nationwide are expected to remain stable next week.
