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Looking back at the seamless pipe market performance in 2024, in the context of insufficient domestic demand, seamless pipe prices declined significantly, industry profits narrowed, and market competition intensified. The only bright spot was the strong export demand. With the Spring Festival approaching, market sentiment is cautious, and winter stockpiling intentions from traders are moderate. The key question now is how the market will unfold post-holiday. The following is a brief outlook on the market after the Spring Festival.
Seamless pipe prices in 2024 followed a downward trend, with only small price rebounds in April and September. As of January 21, 2025, the national average price of seamless pipes (108*4.5mm) was 4,443 yuan per ton, close to the lowest level in the past three years. Historically, price support after the Spring Festival has been strong, and based on the last five years of data, there’s a high likelihood of price increases within the first two weeks after the holiday. Price declines are more likely to occur after the first two weeks post-festival.
Seasonal Analysis of National Seamless Pipe Price (108*4.5mm)
National Seamless Pipe Market Price Changes Before and After the Spring Festival in the Past Five Years
Before the Spring Festival, the prices of iron ore, coke, and other raw materials saw significant increases, which kept pipe billet prices at relatively high levels. As of January 21, 2025, the price of pipe billets in Shandong remained around 3,400 yuan per ton. Since pipe billets are the main raw material for seamless pipes, these cost pressures provide strong support for seamless pipe prices. Under these cost pressures, pipe mills are maintaining low profits and are inclined to push for price increases post-holiday, limiting the downward price potential.
Shandong Pipe Billet Price
According to Mysteel's survey of pipe mills, the number of days of shutdowns and production declines during the Spring Festival in 2025 are significantly higher than in previous years. The average number of shutdown days increased by 11.15 days, and the output reduction increased by 29,800 tons year-on-year. Particularly in East China, production declines are more noticeable, while in North China and Northeast China, shutdowns have been more frequent. The reduction in supply during the holiday is expected to limit market availability and exert upward pressure on prices post-holiday.
Additionally, many pipe mills started their holidays earlier than usual, leading to a greater production reduction than in previous years. Some key markets, such as Linyi and Liaocheng, saw reduced inventories due to environmental regulations. Winter stockpiling intentions were low, with only 44% of surveyed traders expressing an interest in winter stockpiling, and 56% opting to maintain low inventory levels. This resulted in relatively low social inventory levels.
Post-Spring Festival, demand is expected to gradually recover as infrastructure projects resume. In line with the country's ongoing policy for steady economic growth, major transportation, energy, and water projects are expected to accelerate, driving demand for seamless pipes. Additionally, the manufacturing sector, particularly industries like machinery and automobile manufacturing, will see stable demand for seamless pipes. As companies resume production and receive more orders post-holiday, seamless pipe purchases are expected to increase.
However, the pace of recovery may be slow. Many downstream construction sites typically resume work gradually, so demand in the first phase post-holiday will mainly be driven by trade circulation.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the overall outlook is relatively positive. With annual work reports being released across provinces, government projections for 2025’s economic outlook are favorable. The anticipated implementation of proactive fiscal policies, increased infrastructure investments, and monetary easing, alongside key government meetings, will likely provide support for seamless pipe prices after the Spring Festival.
From a sentiment standpoint, the market showed a slight uptick in prices before the holiday, and overall market confidence has been recovering.
Given these factors, the seamless pipe market is expected to see a "strong start" after the Spring Festival, with prices likely to increase in the first few weeks, due to tightening supply, recovering demand, improved market sentiment, and favorable macroeconomic policies. However, uncertainties remain, such as the impact of new US-China policies, the progress of global economic recovery, trade friction, and the pace of domestic demand recovery. These factors may influence both the extent and sustainability of price increases.
For seamless pipe manufacturers, it's advisable to arrange production plans strategically and adjust product structures and output in response to market demands. For traders, seizing market opportunities while controlling inventory can help minimize business risks and improve customer service.
